The broad, long-term objective of the project is to elaborate an approach for a comprehensive analysis of health-related changes in aging individuals by developing tools for integration of distinct types of longitudinal data and elaboration of techniques for incorporation of the biologically-motivated information on aging associated changes into the developed models. The key idea of this approach is to perform joint statistical analyses of data collected using different observational plans. The analyses will be based on comprehensive mathematical and computer models describing joint age related changes in physiological state and health/well-being/survival status. To elaborate such models and methods the following specific aims will be addressed. 1) Elaborate advanced models of health, mortality and aging capable of describing individual physiological histories and their effects on risk of disease and death. Incorporate in these models the ability to describe the range of "normal" values of physiological indices specific for a given age. Generalize these models extending them to investigate the problem of dependent competing risks and apply them to data on physiological and health/well-being changes. 2) Elaborate methods and respective mathematical and computer models for investigation of effects of hidden heterogeneity in the rate of decline in stress resistance on the shape of the risks of disease and death considered as functions of risk factors. 3) Incorporate finite-state continuous-time component describing major changes in individual's health/well- being status into the elaborated models. PUBLIC HEALTH RELEVANCE: The proposed analysis is directly relevant to public health issues since it is specifically designed to develop models with increased accuracy of parameter estimates for improving quality of individualized and population-wide predictions of health/well-being/survival status of the elderly individuals as well as for evaluating the effect of possible health/well-being preventive interventions.